World Bank lowers 2026 GDP growth forecast for Ukraine to 2%

MOSCOW. Oct 7 (Interfax) - The World Bank now expects Ukraine's GDP will grow 2% in 2026, as in 2025, with acceleration to 5% not expected until 2027.

The World Bank published its updated forecast on Tuesday in its "Europe and Central Asia Economic Update: Jobs and Prosperity" report, Ukrainian media said.

Economic growth in Ukraine is projected to slow to 2% in 2025 from 2.9% in 2024, as the protracted crisis impacts investment and business activity, the report said.

The World Bank said in June this year that it expected Ukrainian economic growth to accelerate to 5.2% next year, slowing to 4.5% in 2027.

The report says Ukraine's gas imports have reached their highest level in nearly two years as infrastructure damage constrained domestic production. Weaker agricultural exports have also slowed growth, reflecting unfavorable weather and the European Union's reintroduction of the pre-crisis trade regime, which tightened restrictions on key Ukrainian agri-food exports. During the first half of 2025, the value of exports dropped by almost 5% p amid a contraction of exports to the European Union, the destination of almost 60% percent of Ukraine's shipments abroad.

The National Bank of Ukraine in July again lowered its forecast for Ukrainian economic growth this year to 2.1% from 3.1% in its April macroeconomic forecast. The Economy Ministry and the government kept their forecast of 2.7%, but Economy Minister Alexei Sobolev on September 24 lowered his forecast for this year to 2%.

The NBU forecasts 2.3% GDP growth for next year, while the government forecasts 2.4%.

The State Statistics Service said Ukraine's GDP growth slowed to 2.9% in 2024 from 5.5% in 2023, following a 28.8% decline in 2022.