NBU: Net demand for cash dollar in Ukraine declines to $100 million in Q2 2025

MOSCOW. Aug 1 (Interfax) - The Ukrainian population's net demand for the cash dollar has drastically declined in the second quarter of 2025, to $100 million from $1.9 billion in the first quarter, whereas the overall demand for the cash currency declined to $800 million from $2.8 billion, Ukrainian media outlets said with a reference to the Inflation Report for July published by the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU).

The improvement in households' exchange rate expectations both in the beginning of the year and on the average in the second quarter, combined with the hryvnia's relative stability to the dollar and the growth of the hryvnia instruments' yield, deterred the demand for the cash currency, the report said.

Seasonal factors also maintained the supply of the cash currency. In addition, thanks to the NBU's mitigation of a number of currency restrictions for businesses, part of the 'grey' demand most likely moved from the cash segment to the non-cash one.

"As a result, the amount of the net purchase of the cash currency by the population declined to $800 million in the second quarter of 2025 from $2.8 billion in the first quarter of 2025," it said.

Additionally, in April-July 2025, the monthly net demand for the foreign currency in cash dropped to an all-time low since October 2024, $300 million on the average, it said. For comparison, it was $800 million on the average in the same period of 2024 and $1.3 billion in January 2025.

"At the same time, the net demand for foreign currency in the non-cash segment of the foreign exchange market has grown in the second quarter of 2025," it said.

The NBU explained the growth of imports in the second quarter of 2025 with several factors. Firstly, purchases of industrial and agricultural equipment, as well as imports of passenger cars amid the expected reinstatement of taxation on electric cars starting on January 1, 2026, have increased considerably. Secondly, import of steel products has increased, likely for the purpose of restoring the infrastructure. In addition, energy import has increased, as state-run companies were stockpiling gas ahead of the heating season 2025-2026, and iron and steel enterprises were importing coal.