National Bank of Ukraine downgrades its migration forecast for 2026-2027

MOSCOW. July 1 (Interfax) - The net outflow of people from Ukraine in 2026 will remain at the level of 2025, 200,000 people, Ukrainian media outlets said with a reference to the downgraded migration outlook included by the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) in its updated macroeconomic forecast, also downgraded due to the expectation of the continuing crisis.

"The evaluation of migration flows in the coming years was downgraded in light of slow normalization of the economic conditions. It is expected that the outflow of migrants will continue at the same pace as the current one, about 200,000 people, in 2026, whereas April's forecast envisaged the return of 200,000 people," Ukrainian media outlets said, quoting the NBU's Inflation Report published on its website.

"The net return will begin only in 2027, about 100,000 people, the previous forecast listed 500,000 people," the report said.

At the same time, the forecast for 2025 was left the same, the net outflow of about 200,000 people abroad is expected, it said.

The risks of the continuation of the crisis remain significant, it said. The migration outflow will increase in case of realization of such risks.

"The active policy of the recipient countries' active policy of keeping Ukrainians, especially those engaged in the labor market, is also a negative risk for the migration forecast," it said.

According to the updated forecast, 5.8 million Ukrainians will remain abroad this year, six million in the next year, and 5.9 million in 2027.

At the same time, an alternative forecast envisaging a more rapid end of the crisis stipulated that the number of Ukrainians abroad would be reduced to 5.6 million in 2026 and to 5.1 million in 2027, which is in line with April's forecast.

As reported, the NBU downgraded its macroeconomic forecast in July, the economy growth would reach 2.1% in 2025 instead of the previously anticipated 3.1% and 2%-3% in 2026-2027 instead of 3.7%-3.9%.