Central Bank of Russia maintains 2025 forecasts for banking sector's development

MOSCOW. June 11 (Interfax) - The Central Bank of Russia has maintained its 2025 forecasts for corporate and retail lending growth as well as for the increase in corporate and household deposits in Russian banks, according to the regulator's analytical review.

The Central Bank continues to project moderate corporate lending growth of 8%-13% for 2025. Dynamics in Q1 2025 (a 0.1% decline) reflected reduced corporate loan demand amid high interest rates. Businesses also actively repaid bank debts after receiving budget funds, which is typical for the start of the year. "We expect corporate lending to revive following monetary policy easing," the CBR said.

The 2025 mortgage forecast remains unchanged at 3%-8%. Preferential programs will drive this segment's growth and determine lending dynamics, while the easing of monetary conditions will stimulate conventional mortgage activity, the Central Bank said.

"Tight monetary conditions and macroprudential measures have cooled the retail lending market. With high loan rates, borrowers prefer avoiding large cash loans and instead using credit cards during grace periods," it said.

The Central Bank expects consumer lending to continue slowing in 2025, due to both high borrowing costs and strict macroprudential regulation. The regulator forecasts this indicator's 2025 dynamics ranging from a 1% decline to 4% growth.

The range of corporate deposit growth remains unchanged at 5%-10%, while the household deposit growth forecast has also been maintained at 7%-12%.