NBU estimates reduction of import due to return to pre-crisis trade regime with EU at $800 million in 2025

MOSCOW. June 5 (Interfax) - Net losses of Ukraine's export linked to the European Union's restoring the pre-crisis trade regime on June 6 will reach about $800 million in June-December 2025, Ukrainian media outlets said, citing National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) Deputy Governor Sergei Nikolaichuk.

"We're returning to the conditions of advanced comprehensive free trade with the European Union envisaging about 30 quotas for us. If supplies happen only within these quotas, it will, of course, considerably impact imports, primarily of grains," media outlets quoted Nikolaichuk as saying at a briefing in Kiev.

Certain quotas for Ukrainian goods were already in effect last year, namely for corn, eggs, sugar, sheep and poultry, he said. Exports of these goods happened outside these quotas, showing that Ukrainian goods remain competitive on the EU market, he said.

At the same time, the impact of the return of the pre-crisis conditions of trade with the EU is considerable for the payment balance and the foreign exchange market, he said.

"The foreign exchange market is definitely not critical and can definitely be compensated by relevant measures of the NBU's monetary and foreign exchange rate currency policies in order to avoid negative effects on our ability to ensure both the resilience of the foreign exchange market and the transfer of inflation to the goal of 5%," Nikolaichuk said.

As reported, the autonomous trade measures are expiring on June 6, 2025. It means the return to the free trade regime which existed before the crisis.

The first autonomous trade measures entered into effect on June 4, 2022 for one year, temporarily lifting duties, quotas and trade restrictions on Ukrainian goods. They were extended twice, on June 6, 2023 and June 6, 2024.