IMF downgrades Ukraine GDP growth outlook for 2025 by 0.5 percentage points to 2%-3%

MOSCOW. March 3 (Interfax) - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has downgraded the Ukraine GDP growth forecast for 2025 by 0.5 percentage points to 2%-3%, Ukrainian media said, citing a press release by the IMF mission on the seventh review of the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) arrangement.

"Real GDP growth is estimated at 3.5 percent for 2024, but is expected to moderate to 2-3 percent in 2025, reflecting headwinds from labor constraints, damage to energy infrastructure, and the persistence" of the conflict, the press release said.

Earlier, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) downgraded its forecast for Ukraine's economic growth in 2025 to 3.5%, while expecting it at 4.7%.in September last year.

As reported, the World Bank's Global Economic Prospects published on January 17 downgraded its forecast for Ukraine's GDP growth in 2025 to 2% from 6.5% in the June report, but improved it for 2026 to 7% from 5.1%.

The National Bank of Ukraine also changed its forecasts. Given the security risks and the difficult situation on the labor market, the NBU downgraded its forecast for real GDP growth in 2025 from 4.1% to 3.6% in late January, while the state budget for 2025 is based on a GDP growth forecast of 2.7%.