Russian govt amends development strategy for agro-industrial, fisheries sectors

MOSCOW. Feb 10 (Interfax) - The Russian government has approved amendments to the development strategy for the agro-industrial and fisheries sectors until 2030.

A corresponding order was signed on February 7, 2025, and published on the official portal of legal information.

The updated strategy includes two implementation scenarios - the baseline scenario and the conservative one.

According to the baseline scenario, in 2025 agricultural production will grow 11.7% compared to 2021, while under the conservative scenario growth will stand at 3.8%. In 2026, these figures are set at 13.8% and 5.5%, respectively, 15.8% and 7.3% in 2027, 18.5% and 9.3% in 2028, 22% and 11.2% in 2029, and 25% (which aligns with the target set by the Russian president) and 13.5% in 2030.

According to the baseline scenario, agricultural exports in 2025 (in nominal prices) will amount to $40.7 billion, while under the conservative scenario they will be $38.5 billion. In 2026, the figures will be $42.2 billion and $40.5 billion, respectively; in 2027 - $44 billion and $42.6 billion, in 2028 - $47.1 billion and $46.1 billion, in 2029 - $51.1 billion and $50.6 billion, and in 2030 both scenarios forecast $55.2 billion, meeting the president's target of increasing exports 1.5-fold compared to 2021.

Under the baseline scenario, capital investment in both sectors will increase 4.5% in 2025 compared to 2020, while the conservative scenario projects an increase of 4.3%. In 2026, these figures will be 5.5% and 4.5%, respectively; in 2027 - 6.6% and 5.4%, in 2028 - 8.1% and 5.9%, in 2029 - 10% and 6.4% and in 2030 - 12.2% and 7%.

The area of agricultural land brought into use in 2025 is set at 5.448 million hectares under the baseline scenario and 2.870 million hectares under the conservative scenario. In 2026, these figures will be 6.745 million hectares and 4.243 million hectares, respectively; in 2027 - 8.043 million hectares and 5.595 million hectares and in 2028 - 9.341 million hectares and 8.142 million hectares. By 2030, this figure is expected to reach 13.235 million hectares under both scenarios, as outlined in the Land federal program.

The updated strategy also stipulates that in 2025 agricultural enterprises will apply 90.6 kg of mineral fertilizers per hectare (in active substance) under the baseline scenario and 77.7 kg under the conservative scenario. In 2026, the figures will be 95.1 kg and 78.5 kg, respectively; in 2027 - 99.8 kg and 79.3 kg, in 2028 - 104.8 kg and 80.2 kg, in 2029 - 110.04 kg and 81.1 kg and in 2030 - 115.6 kg and 81.7 kg.

The catch of fish and other aquatic bioresources in 2025 is projected at 5.209 million tonnes under the baseline scenario and 5.08 million tonnes under the conservative scenario. In 2026, the figures will be 5.126 million tonnes and 4.95 million tonnes, respectively; in 2027 - 5.355 million tonnes and 5.1 million tonnes, in 2028 - 5.387 million tonnes and 5.01 million tonnes, in 2029 - 5.508 million tonnes and 5.1 million tonnes and in 2030 - 5.5 million tonnes and 5.15 million tonnes. Aquaculture production is planned at 420,000 tonnes and 400,000 tonnes in 2025 under the baseline and conservative scenarios, respectively. In 2026, the figures will be 432,000 tonnes and 420,000 tonnes, in 2027 - 479,000 tonnes and 440,000 tonnes, in 2028 - 526,000 tonnes and 460,000 tonnes, in 2029 - 573,000 tonnes and 480,000 tonnes and in 2030 - 618,000 tonnes and 502,000 tonnes.