World Bank downgrades Ukraine's GDP growth forecast in 2025 from 6.5% to 2%
MOSCOW. Jan 17 (Interfax) - The World Bank (WB) has downgraded in its Global Economic Prospects published on Friday the forecast of the growth of Ukraine's gross domestic product (GDP) in 2025 to 2% from 6.5% in June's report, but improved it for 2026 from 5.1% to 7%, Ukrainian media outlets said.
"Ukraine's growth is projected to moderate to 2% in 2025, assuming active hostilities continue throughout the year. A robust recovery of 7% is anticipated in 2026, contingent on the cessation of active hostilities, supported by consumption and reconstruction investments," the WB said.
The forecast still remains conditional on assumptions about the timing and quantity of receipts of external assistance and the duration of the crisis, it said.
According to the bank's estimates, the growth in Ukraine slowed to 3.2% in 2024, reflecting such challenges as reduced energy capacities and winter power outages constraining trade and industrial output gains.
"Despite these obstacles [...], the economy has shown significant resilience," it said.
The bank mentioned the restructuring of about $20 billion of the debt in Eurobonds carried out in September 2024, as a result of which amortization and interest payments are expected to decline by $7.6 billion between 2025 and 2027 compared to pre-restructuring obligations.
The International Monetary Fund also published its updated macroeconomic forecast on Friday. Ukraine is not mentioned in it, Ukrainian media outlets said.
As reported, the Ukrainian Economy Ministry recently downgraded its estimate of the growth of Ukraine's GDP in 2024 from 3.9% to 3.6%, and the state budget for 2025 is based on the forecasted 2.7% GDP growth and 9.5% inflation.
In late October 2024, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) upgraded the economic growth forecast from 3.7% to 4% in 2024 and from 4.1% to 4.3% in 2025. At the same time, the NBU downgraded the inflation forecast from 8.5% to 9.7% in 2024 and from 6.6% to 6.9% in 2025.
