IEA: Russian oil exports fall 0.5% MoM in Dec, revenue rises 2.8%, annual revenue $3.8 bln

MOSCOW. Jan 15 (Interfax) - Russia's exports of crude oil and petroleum products fell by 40,000 barrels per day month-on-month, or 0.5%, to 7.33 million bpd in December, while revenue increased by $410 million month-on-month, or 2.8%, to $15.1 billion, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its monthly report.

Meantime, sales fell by 720,000 bpd year-on-year and revenue dropped by $1.4 billion year-on-year in December 2024.

Oil sales fell by 250,000 bpd month-on-month to 4.59 million bpd and revenue from sales dropped by $130 million month-on-month to $9.44 billion in December. Exported petroleum products rose by 210,000 bpd month-on-month to 2.74 million bpd in December, thereby generating revenue of $5.62 billion, up $550 million month-on-month.

Russia's oil production fell by 40,000 bpd to 9.2 million bpd in December, the IEA calculated.

Preliminary data indicate a decline in oil exports by 350,000 bpd year-on-year in 2024, of which crude oil shipments fell by 125,000 bpd and petroleum products by 225,000 bpd, while oil and petroleum products shipments increased to Turkey (+100,000 bpd), and exports to the Middle East and Europe fell by 190,000 bpd and 220,000 bpd, respectively. The decline in oil product exports was dominated by gasoil (-87,000 bpd), vacuum gasoil (-78,000 bpd), gasoline (-47,000 bpd), and naphtha (-35,000 bpd).

Total export revenue increased by $3.8 billion, or approximately 2%, to $192 billion in 2024, while revenue from oil sales increased by $4.5 billion and revenue from the sale of petroleum products decreased by $0.8 billion.

The new U.S. sanctions [imposed on January 10] are aimed at significantly reducing the export revenue of the Russian oil sector. More than 180 vessels have been blocked, including nearly 160 tankers that carried more than 1.6 million bpd of Russian crude in 2024, which is around 22% of Russia's seaborne exports. They [the sanctions] could significantly disrupt the supply and distribution chains of Russian oil. Restrictions on major projects [...] and foreign oilfield services, including U.S. companies that continued to operate in Russia, could affect production, the IEA said in the report.

Exports will also be affected by a reduction in the tanker fleet owned by companies such as Sovcomflot, the cancellation of shipping insurance, and restrictions on dominant traders of Russian oil, the IEA said, adding that the agency is not yet able to determine the effect of the latest sanctions on the oil market.

The IEA said that the agency has retained its forecast for supplies from Russia for now and will update the forecast as the situation develops.