Analysts raise forecasts for key rate, inflation significantly in 2025; lower outlook for Russia's GDP growth in 2025 - Central Bank survey

MOSCOW. Dec 11 (Interfax) - Analysts surveyed by the Central Bank of Russia have raised their respective forecasts for the average key rate to 17.5% per annum in 2024 from 17.3% pa in October, as well as to 21.3% pa in 2025 from 18.0% pa, to 14.6% pa in 2026 from 12.5% pa, and to 10.4% pa in 2027 from 9.0% pa, respectively, the CBR said in the monthly survey.

The CBR conducted the survey on December 6-10, 2024.

The forecast for growth in Russia's GDP rose to 3.8% in 2024 from 3.7%. However, expectations for growth declined to 1.5% in 2025 from 1.8%, to 1.7% in 2026 from 1.9%, and was unchanged at 1.9% in 2027.

The consensus forecast among analysts regarding inflation expectedly increased substantially to 9.2% in 2024 from 7.7%, to 6.0% in 2025 from 5.3%, to 4.5% in 2026 from 4.1%, and was unchanged at 4.0% in 2027.