NBU estimate puts net population outflow from Ukraine at around 500,000 in 2024

MOSCOW. Nov 11 (Interfax) - The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has again worsened its forecast for this year's outflow from Ukraine from around 400,000 to 500,000 people in its October inflation report, with the number of Ukrainians remaining abroad expected grow to 6.9 million in absolute figures this year, Ukrainian media quoted the NBU as saying in its report.

"Due to a very difficult energy situation, the risk of a greater number of Ukrainians leaving the country materialized in the summer of 2024. Therefore, the assumption of net outflow from Ukraine in 2024 has been downgraded from previous estimates to around 500,000 people," the document said.

At the same time, the NBU estimates that a larger outflow this year means fewer people planning and having the opportunity to leave the country in 2025, with their number projected at around 200,000 instead of 300,000.

"The crisis and a significant shortage of electricity will cause the continued migration from Ukraine, with a slow return of migrants to Ukraine on the projected horizon," it said.

In the new report, the bank reaffirmed its expectations for Ukrainians to start returning home in 2026, but lowered its forecast for net inflow in 2026 to around 200,000 from 400,000, so there will still be 6.9 million migrants outside Ukraine at the end of 2026.

"The risks of more Ukrainians leaving the country and fewer of them returning home still prevail. The longer they stay abroad, the better adapted they are to life in the host countries, which creates risks of them not returning and of for more people leaving Ukraine to reunite with their families abroad," it said.

This will have an adverse impact on the labor supply and will reduce a potential consumer demand, it said. Increased demand for skilled labor in the economy will further increase imbalances on the labor market driving wages above the productivity growth in certain sectors.

According to updated statistics provided by the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), the number of Ukrainian refugees in Europe was estimated at 6.192 million and at 6.752 million globally as of October 15 this year, up by 38,000 and 27,000, respectively, from September 24 this year.

In accordance with the most recent UN statistics as of August this year, there were 3.669 million internally displaced persons (IDPs) in Ukraine, up 121,000 from April this year.

The return of every 100,000 Ukrainians home contributes to a 0.5% GDP increase, Ukrainian Deputy Economy Minister Sergei Sobolev said in March last year. The Economy Ministry projected the return of 1.5 million people to Ukraine in its macro forecast for this year.