Ukraine hopes to retain leadership in sunflower production in 2024-2025 MG

MOSCOW. Oct 4 (Interfax) - Ukraine has defied the negative expectations in the 2023-2024 marketing year (MG) by retaining its leadership on the global sunflower market, accounting for 42% of global production, the Ukrainian media reported citing the UkrAgroConsult agency.

The analysts cited a U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecast which raised the 2023-2024 MG forecast for Ukraine's gross sunflower production thanks to higher yields to 15.5 million tonnes, or by 27% from 2022-2023 MG.

The increased yields boosted Ukraine's exports by 9% compared with 2022-2023 MG, the experts said.

Since the start of the crisis, there has been redistribution of the sunflower market, they said. For Ukraine's exports, the European Union has become the key destination. Turkey also now buys more from Ukraine.

Analysts are predicting poor yields for sunflower in the 2024-2025 MG. According to the current USDA forecast, for September 2024, inclement weather in the key producing countries could drive global sunflower production to its lowest level in the past four seasons, at 50.6 million tonnes, down 10% on the previous season. Ukraine is expected to cut production of the crop down to 12.5 million tonnes, or by 19% from 2023-2024 MG.

"Ukraine will retain its leadership but its share in the total global production will decrease to 41% versus 42% in 2023/24 MG in favor of Russia, 33% versus 29%. The forecast for Russia looks fairly optimistic," UkrAgroConsult said.