Asian Development Bank lowers Kazakhstan's 2024 GDP growth forecast to 3.6%

ASTANA. Sept 25 (Interfax) - The Asian Development Bank forecasts Kazakhstan's GDP growth at 3.6% in 2024, down from its April forecast of 3.8%, and 5.1% in 2025, according to the Asian Development Outlook 2024 available on the ADB website.

The revised economic growth outlook for Kazakhstan in 2024 follows weaker expansion in the services sector during the first half of the year, compounded by lower oil output, widespread flooding and a slowdown in investment.

"In the first half of 2024, tax revenue collection declined as receipts from oil duty and value-added tax were lower compared to the same period in 2023. The decline in tax collection was offset by higher transfers from the sovereign wealth fund, the National Fund of the Republic of Kazakhstan, with the government utilizing three-quarters of planned annual transfers in the period," the report says.

The ADB said fiscal policy issues had to be addressed to ensure GDP growth.

"While the economic growth prospects for Kazakhstan look positive in the medium term, its fiscal challenges must be addressed to ensure sustainable and inclusive economic growth," Utsav Kumar, ADB Country Director for Kazakhstan, said.

Inflation is projected to slow further to 6.1% in 2025 from 8.4% in 2024, reflecting tight monetary policy and a stable exchange rate supported by substantial foreign reserves and commodity export earnings.

Kazakhstan' GDP grew 5.1% in 2023 and 3.7% in January-August 2024.