Analysts again raise forecasts for key rate, inflation and GDP - Central Bank of Russia survey

MOSCOW. Sept 4 (Interfax) - Analysts have again raised their forecasts for the average key rate in 2024, this time to 17.1% from the 16.8% they were predicting in July, according to a monthly survey for the Central Bank of Russia.

The 2025 forecast rises to 16.1% from 15%, 2026 to 11.5% from 10.6%, and 2027 to 8.6% from 8%.

The neutral key rate forecast rises to 8% from 7.5%.

The latest survey was carried out from August 30 to September 3.

The forecast for Russian GDP growth in 2024 has been increased to 3.6% from 3.2%. Expectations for inflation for the current year have also increased, to 7.3% from 6.5%.

The forecast for GDP growth in 2025 remains 1.7%, while for 2026 it has been increased to 1.9% from 1.7% and for 2027 to 2% from 1.8%.

The inflation forecast for 2025 has been increased to 4.8% from 4.5%, while for 2026 and 2027 it is 4%.

The survey results are the median of 28 forecasts of economists from various organizations taking part in the survey.

The forecast average dollar rate for 2024 is 90.4 rubles (90.1 rubles in July), for 2025 - 94.4 rubles (95 rubles previously), for 2026 - 96.4 rubles (97.2 rubles previously) and for 2027 - 98.9 rubles (unchanged).