September 10, 2019 17:02
Net capital outflow from Russia rose 1.3-fold to $26.1 bln in 8M, but $1.9 bln inflow in Aug - Central Bank estimate (Part 2)
MOSCOW. Sept 10 (Interfax) - Net private sector capital outflow from Russia was $26.1 billion in January-August 2019, a 1.3-fold increase over $20.6 billion in the same period of 2019, according to a Central Bank estimate.
"The aggregate's dynamics were driven, primarily, by the buildup of foreign assets of banks and other sectors. Cumulative external liabilities that were shaped by multidirectional flows, from banks in repayment of external debt and toward other sectors attracting funding, had virtually neutral effect on the magnitude of the resulting outcome," the regulator said.
In January-July 2019, net capital outflow came to $28 billion, so there may have been a net inflow of $1.9 billion for August.
In 2018, there was a net inflow only in June ($7.5 billion). Based on preliminary estimates, the CBR estimates that this June also saw a net inflow totaling about $7.9 billion. The outflow in May and July did not exceed $1 billion per month.
According to the CBR's adjusted forecast, capital outflow in 2019 at an average oil price of $63 a barrel in the baseline scenario is expected to be $40 billion.
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