Subscription and demo access


 
About Interfax
Press Releases
Products & Services
Contact us
Customer Login
 


Headlines
 

10/17 12:25   ECHR awards Navalny brothers over 80,000 euros in compensation in Yves Rocher case
 
10/17 12:24   No leaks to prove Russian interference in U.S. presidential election - Lavrov
 
10/17 12:22   Moscow believes Trump still committed to improving relations with Russia - Lavrov
 
10/17 12:22   U.S. ideas may break Iranian nuclear deal - Ryabkov
 
10/17 12:21   Based on ECHR judgment, Navalny defense to demand Russian Supreme Court close Yves Rocher case - lawyer
 
10/17 12:20   Ryakov says he doesn't plan to meet with Shannon within next two weeks
 
10/17 12:15   Communications ministry proposes storing data for one month under Yarovaya law
 
10/17 12:12   Parameters of concession for Northern Latitudinal Railway changed - paper
 
10/17 12:08   Russian CEC head: Navalny misinterprets Constitution
 
10/17 12:07   Iran nuclear deal close to being optimal - Ryabkov
 


 

Interfax.com  |  Interfax news  |  Central Bank analysts lower Russian GDP growth...


News headlines


September 06, 2017 15:23

Central Bank analysts lower Russian GDP growth forecast in Q3-Q4 on weak industrial production data (Part 2)

MOSCOW. Sept 6 (Interfax) - Central Bank analysts have lowered their forecast for Russian GDP growth in Q3 from 0.6% to 0.4%-0.5% on a quarterly basis excluding seasonality, the Central Bank's Research and Forecasting Department said in its bulletin Talking Trends.

The estimate for October-December 2017 was also lowered from 0.6% to 0.4%.

"The main sources of the downward revision include the latest data from Rosstat on industrial production. However, strong data on the PMI-Indices continue to have, in their turn, a significant positive contribution to the GDP estimate," the analysts said.

Rosstat published data for industrial production in July which showed growth of only 1.1% as opposed to 3.5% in June and 5.6% in May, disappointing analysts and the Central Bank.

"The index estimate of GDP shows the likelihood of a slowdown of GDP growth rates in the second half of the year close to the potential level. Through this alone, the phase of renewed economic growth which began in the middle of last year after the recession in 2014-2016 is coming to an end," the analysts said.

According to Rosstat data, Russian GDP growth in Q2 2017 accelerated to 2.5% in annual terms, after growing 0.5% in Q1. This was the highest growth the economy had seen in annual terms since 2013, the analysts said.

"Even though the Russian economy has entered on a trajectory of slow but sustainable growth under 'new normal' conditions, the faster pace of GDP growth in early 2017 may to a significant extent have been due to the delayed effect of oil price growth in late 2016 and early 2017," the Central Bank said.

If seasonally adjusted, annualized GDP growth in the second half is close to 1.5%, then year-on-year growth in the third and fourth quarters would not drop below the current pace of 2.5%, the Central Bank said, adding that an upward revision of the GDP growth rate in late 2016-early 2017 by Rosstat could invalidate this reasoning.

"Under the aforementioned conditions, GDP growth for 2017 as a whole should be about 2%, of which potential growth would account for 1.5 percentage points, oil price dynamics for 0.3 pps and closure of the output shortfall for 0.2 pps," according to the bulletin.

It expects Russian GDP to grow 0.4% in Q1 2018.

Ns ak jh nb

(Our editorial staff can be reached at eng.editors@interfax.ru)

/Interfax/
 Subscription
You can access a demo version of, receive more information about or subscribe to Interfax publications by filling in and returning the form below. We also have dozens of reports in the Russian language, please indicate if you are interested.
Title:


Phone:


E-mail:


First name:


Company:


Country:
Last name:


Division:


City:
Products:
Central Asia & Caucasus Business Weekly
Central Asia General Newswire
Global Gas Analytics
Global Natural Gas Daily
Interfax Via Bloomberg Terminal
Kazakhstan General Newswire
Kazakhstan Mining Weekly
Kazakhstan Oil & Gas Weekly
Russia & CIS Announcements
Russia & CIS Banking and Finance Weekly
Russia & CIS Business and Financial Daily
Russia & CIS Business and Financial Newswire
Russia & CIS Business and Investment Weekly
Russia & CIS Business Law Weekly
Russia & CIS Business news
Russia & CIS Defense Industry Weekly
Russia & CIS Diplomatic Panorama
Russia & CIS Energy Daily
Russia & CIS Energy Newswire
Russia & CIS Events Calendar
Russia & CIS Food and Agriculture Weekly
Russia & CIS General Newswire
Russia & CIS Headline News
Russia & CIS Insurance Weekly
Russia & CIS IT and Telecom Weekly
Russia & CIS Metals and Mining Weekly
Russia & CIS Military Daily
Russia & CIS Military Newswire
Russia & CIS Military Weekly
Russia & CIS Oil and Gas Weekly
Russia & CIS Presidential Bulletin
Russia & CIS Statistics Weekly
Russia Health & Pharmaceuticals
Russia Market Roundup
Russia Press Review
Ukraine Business Daily
Ukraine Business Weekly
Ukraine General Newswire
Please enter the digits from picture in the box below:

October 17, 2017
 
12:12
Parameters of concession for Northern Latitudinal Railway changed - paper
 
12:08
Russian CEC head: Navalny misinterprets Constitution
 
12:07
Iran nuclear deal close to being optimal - Ryabkov
 
12:06
Hundreds of Russians killed in fighting on terrorists' side in Syria - Russian Interior Ministry
 
12:06
LAVROV: STILL NOT A SINGLE LEAK ON WHETHER FACTS OF RUSSIA'S INTERFERENCE IN U.S. PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS UNCOVERED
 
12:05
CENTRAL BANK OF RUSSIA RUBLE EXCHANGE RATES FROM 18.10.2017
 
12:04
MOSCOW BELIEVES TRUMP STILL COMMITTED TO IMPROVEMENT OF RELATIONS, COOPERATION WITH RUSSIA - LAVROV
 
12:02
CB to quote ruble at 57.3392 rubles/$1 and 67.4596 rubles/EUR1 on October 18
 
12:00
Russian military bring humanitarian aid to Syria's Khan Arnabeh, liberated from militants
 
12:00
 
12:00
Shuvalov expects EAEU, Singapore free trade agreement to be signed in 2018
 
11:59
Russia sees no reason why U.S. demands JCPOA modification
 
11:56
Ryabkov accuses U.S. of violating "spirit and letter" of JCPOA
 
11:55
Law prohibits Navalny from running for president - CEC head Pamfilova
 
 more headlines 



Interviews
 

.
Filipino Ambassador to Russia Carlos Sorreta has given an interview to Interfax in which he speaks about prospects for Russian-Filipino cooperation in the military-technical sphere, as well possible cooperation on anti-terrorism, energy, investments and tourism.

more
.
.
Sudanese State Minister for Foreign Affairs Atta Elmanan Bakhit has given an interview to Interfax during his visit to Moscow in which he speaks about a visit of Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir to Russia, bilateral Russian-Sudanese economic and military cooperation and describes sanctions in the global politics as "immoral and illegal".

more
.
.
Secretary General of the League of Arab States has given an interview with Interfax in the wake of his negotiations with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in which he speaks about the participation of Arab countries in the Astana process, Russia‘s political and military role in Syria, as well as prospects for resuming Syria‘s membership in the Arab League.

more

 
  
 ©   1991—2017   Interfax Information Service. All rights reserved.
contact information   |   Interfax offices   |   made by web.finmarket

News and other data on this site are provided for information purposes only, and are not intended for republication or redistribution. Republication or redistribution of Interfax content, including by framing or similar means, is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of Interfax.

Browse other Interfax sites:  Interfax.ru   |   IFX.RU   |   Interfax Group   Rambler's Top100