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John Bolton: Israel could strike Iran after U.S. presidential election
The chances that Israel will strike Iran after the U.S. presidential election are quite high, said John Bolton, a prominent U.S. security expert.
I think that if it does happen, it will not be before November, but before the U.S. president's inauguration, he said in an interview with Interfax.
I do not know what is the decision of Israel about using military force, he said.
However, if Israel decides to use force against Iran, it will not do so before the U.S. presidential election, said Bolton, who is a former U.S. undersecretary of state and ambassador to the United Nations.
The Israelis do not want to do anything that could affect the outcome of the U.S. presidential election either way, he said.
It is clear that they will know at that time who is going to be the next president. However, the Israelis will feel more secure at the time when President Bush is still in the White House. But my point of view does not mean that Israel has made any particular decision, Bolton said.
It is hard to evaluate the consequences, because the event is going to be quite dramatic, he said.
Bolton said also that the U.S. recognition of Kosovo's independent was a serious mistake.
The recognition could escalate tensions in the Balkans, rather than normalize the situation, he said.
Bosnian Serbs would wonder why not secede from Bosnia if Kosovo could secede from Serbia, while Belgrade democrats would wonder why their aspirations for European integration and defense of democratic values was rewarded in that way (with the recognition of Kosovo), Bolton said.
Hopefully, instability in the Balkans would not deepen, alongside the risk of violence, said the prominent Republican, who currently works for the American Enterprise Institute.
The policy on Kosovo has been unaltered since the time Slobodan Milosevic led Yugoslavia, Bolton said. The opposition to Milosevic was so strong that the United States gave support to anyone in opposition, he said.
However, the situation changed drastically when a democratic government took office in Belgrade, and support for Kosovo is now atavistic, Bolton said. He said he believed that such support might have made sense 15 years ago, but not now.
As for the opinion of the American people about events in Kosovo, he said, the Americans have no viewpoint on Kosovo. He said everything had been done by the State Department, while others paid little attention.
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